1. 5x is fairly arbitrary. Plugging in 10x lowers the upper bound return to ~38% and the traditional 8x capitalization rate translates to ~44%. Because of the Mittleman transition and the whipsaw that is COVID, the actual overhead itself is difficult to normalize (can get an idea of the inconsistency on slide 17 here: https://www.aimia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Aimia_Q3-2021-Highlights-Presentation.pdf)
2. The discount is a valid objection. I'd venture that the (hopefully) soon to be very liquid balance sheet and likelihood of fast return of capital to shareholders (whatever the mechanics) somewhat offset this.
As a secondary, much more idealistic, quasi macro point- the Mittleman expertise carries some value as Aimia pivots to generalized value investing as the style becomes more in favor with tighter monetary/fiscal policy (to be clear: the "value in value" is not an investable thesis, but maybe an interesting discussion point).
Thanks for comments. On the discount, I suspect it's particularly tricky as a lot of the value is in private holdings where it is difficult to get up to date / high confidence valuations.
Something I've always struggled with for example is the Kognitiv stake, where it feels v. difficult to know what it is worth, albeit it could be one of their biggest assets. Appreciate you have been conservative in relation to the deal value, but it is heavily loss making, and tricky to know if has much value or not.
Thanks for piecing together all the PLM information regarding a potential deal.
Thanks for sharing this write-up. I have held Aimia in the past, and there are a couple of points I would question in the valuation.
1. Why is corporate overhead only capitalised at 5x?
2. Do you not feel an investment holding company discount is appropriate? e.g. look at PSH discount.
Thanks for the response.
1. 5x is fairly arbitrary. Plugging in 10x lowers the upper bound return to ~38% and the traditional 8x capitalization rate translates to ~44%. Because of the Mittleman transition and the whipsaw that is COVID, the actual overhead itself is difficult to normalize (can get an idea of the inconsistency on slide 17 here: https://www.aimia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Aimia_Q3-2021-Highlights-Presentation.pdf)
2. The discount is a valid objection. I'd venture that the (hopefully) soon to be very liquid balance sheet and likelihood of fast return of capital to shareholders (whatever the mechanics) somewhat offset this.
As a secondary, much more idealistic, quasi macro point- the Mittleman expertise carries some value as Aimia pivots to generalized value investing as the style becomes more in favor with tighter monetary/fiscal policy (to be clear: the "value in value" is not an investable thesis, but maybe an interesting discussion point).
Thanks for comments. On the discount, I suspect it's particularly tricky as a lot of the value is in private holdings where it is difficult to get up to date / high confidence valuations.
Something I've always struggled with for example is the Kognitiv stake, where it feels v. difficult to know what it is worth, albeit it could be one of their biggest assets. Appreciate you have been conservative in relation to the deal value, but it is heavily loss making, and tricky to know if has much value or not.
Thanks for piecing together all the PLM information regarding a potential deal.